January 2026

Sharp decline in mortgage rates revives hopes of a refi surge, LOs say

Mortgage rates briefly fell below 6% on Friday for the first time in nearly three years — driven by President Donald Trump’s proposed $200 billion push in the secondary market. If they stay that low, they are expected to spur refinance activity.  Historically, a 22–basis-point decline in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, such as the […]

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Housing starts fall to lowest point since 2020, led by a stall in the Sun Belt

Residential construction fell to its lowest point since May 2020, according to an October U.S. Census Bureau report that was delayed by last year’s government shutdown. Widening air pockets of demand over the past year led to an overbuild of speculative homebuilder inventory in — formerly booming — Sun Belt and Mountain West markets. Builders

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Mortgage rates drop below 6% following Trump’s MBS announcement

It finally happened today: We got mortgage rates under 6% for a short time. Can we get some traction for that level? Well, one aspect of the mortgage-rate story really improved today; we had a monster day in mortgage spreads, improving overnight to push rates down over 20 basis points without much help from the

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ATTOM: Home affordability stays strained across the country

Homes remained less affordable than historic norms in nearly every U.S. county at the end of 2025, despite modest improvements late in the year, according to ATTOM’s latest U.S. Home Affordability Report, released Thursday. In 586 of the 594 counties analyzed (or 99%), median-priced single-family homes and condominiums were less affordable than historic averages in

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Trump directs GSEs to purchase $200B in mortgage bonds in 2025

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac quietly increased their purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in 2025, helping push mortgage spreads lower toward the year’s end. Most analysts, however, were not expecting further meaningful tightening in the near term — at least until this week. That changed Thursday after President Donald Trump posted on social media that

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Will banning institutional investors make homes more affordable?

Housing professionals across the country raised their eyebrows earlier this week when President Donald Trump said he would look to stop large institutional investors from buying homes, citing increased affordability pressures on the typical American consumer. Cotality principal economist Thom Malone has long studied the impacts that real estate investors of all sizes have on

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Rates Plummet to 3 Year Lows, But There Are Caveats

Rates Plummet to 3 Year Lows, But There Are Caveats

On a week where the mortgage market was most likely to experience volatility due to Friday’s jobs report, Thursday afternoon’s surprise announcement of $200bln in GSE MBS (mortgage-backed securities) buying stole the show. This was already juicing the underlying MBS market yesterday afternoon, but traders took the surge to the next level this morning. This

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Trump’s $200B MBS idea tightens spreads, raises doubts

If it comes to fruition, President Trump’s call for a $200 billion purchase of mortgage-backed securities could further tighten MBS spreads in the near term. But with few details available, many market participants are skeptical about the longer-term impact. Processing Content In response to the president directing his representatives to purchase an equal amount of

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Polymarket, Parcl launch real estate prediction market

Americans can now get involved in the housing market without actually purchasing a home. Processing Content The market prediction platform Polymarket partnered with Parcl, a real-time housing data and on-chain real estate platform, to launch a set of markets that allow users to bet on future home prices, the companies announced in a press release

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With CFPB nominee lapse, Vought continues as acting director

With CFPB nominee lapse, Vought continues as acting director

Bloomberg News Processing Content What’s at Stake: Russell Vought, who also leads the Office of Management and Budget, has publicly stated his intent to shut down the CFPB, and recently refused to request funding for the agency. Supporting Data: Under the Federal Vacancies Reform Act, the lapse enables Russell Vought to remain as the acting

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