Housing inventory officially went negative year-over-year last week. This might be a shocker to some people, but not for readers of our Housing Market Tracker, since I believe the housing inventory story started shifting in mid-June of 2025. Lets go over last week’s data and explain what’s happening. Housing Inventory First things first: the Memorial […]
Housing inventory just turned negative year over year Read More »
It’s been a day full of news about a possible peace deal with Iran, which would be great news for housing. However, even though mortgage rates have risen due to the conflict lasting longer than anyone initially thought, housing demand has held up, and housing inventory is now on the verge of going negative year
Housing demand stays firm, pushing inventory close to negative YOY Read More »
Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield both hit yearly highs after the Friday massacre in the bond market, as we didn’t get any positive news on ending the conflict in Iran. Even with all that, our weekly pending home sales data is still positive year over year, for now. The weekly mortgage purchase application data
Mortgage rates are at yearly highs, but housing demand is still positive Read More »
Housing data once again remained resilient last week even as mortgage rates are closer to yearly highs than lows, with demand hitting multiyear highs in our weekly pending home sales data. Housing isn’t booming by any means, but it’s holding up well considering all the drama we have had in 2026. Also, our weekly active
Positive housing demand leads to inventory almost going negative YOY Read More »
Mortgage spreads are once again the unsung hero for housing in 2026 because they are the sole reason why mortgage rates have been under 6.65% the entire year! Last week, the benefits of mortgage spreads being close to normal were very evident: if we currently had the highest levels of mortgage spreads in 2023, 2024
Mortgage spreads are the only thing keeping rates under 7% Read More »
To my shock, housing demand grew noticeably last week, even though the war with Iran continues and mortgage rates are higher today than before the war started. Last week was one of the more positive reports since I started writing the Housing Market Tracker at the end of 2022. Everything I want to see in
Housing demand shockingly positive even as the Iran war continues Read More »
A ton of housing data snapped back last week as it should have from the holiday-impacted week before: active inventory, new listings and weekly pending home sales all grew above trend. This usually happens when we have a major holiday the previous week that slows data, but mortgage rates have also fallen and we are
Weekly pending home sales show yearly growth as mortgage rates fall Read More »
Is housing inventory about to go negative? Since mid-June 2025 I’ve been writing that housing market dynamics have shifted, which we could already see in our HousingWire data while it might take other sources six to nine months to show that. This shift should create some negative year-over-year inventory in 2026 and if the Iran
Is housing inventory about to turn negative year over year? Read More »
War-time economics have, of course, sent gas prices skyrocketing, but have also pushed mortgage rates higher over the last five weeks, from a low of 5.99% to a high of 6.64%. Rates have fallen a bit recently, but higher rates have slowed some of the housing data down. In the past, mortgage rates above 7%
How is the housing market weathering war-time economics? Read More »
As shocking as it may seem with all the crazy things that have happened in 2026 — AI labor disruption headlines, epic snowstorms and especially the Iran conflict — housing demand, even last week, still showed year-over-year growth with mortgage purchase applications data and our weekly pending home sales. However, that growth has slowed and
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