Treasuries headed for their biggest drop in more than two weeks after a gauge of private-sector employment growth was in line with estimates, leaving intact expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. Processing Content The 10-year note’s yield was nearly five basis points higher on the day at 4.49%, only its […]
Treasuries eye biggest loss in two weeks after ADP jobs data Read More »
The near-term impact of inflation has the Mortgage Bankers Association warning of potential setbacks to growth and a 2027 federal rate hike, but lenders should still see volumes increase this year, it said on Sunday. Processing Content Originations will grow approximately 6% year-over-year in 2026 on a dollar-volume basis, with the trade group presenting baseline
MBA adjust forecasts for a 2027 federal rate hike Read More »
In dire need of a market-friendly CPI report, traders seemed to know that’s not what was coming as treasuries opened with bearish gaps leaving the 5-year yield within a basis point of its 5/4 yield crest. Processing Content Crude oil was also up another $3.50, which I’m sure didn’t help. Expectations were for headline CPI
Hotter-than-expected CPI sends yields climbing Read More »
Treasuries opened softer this morning, but Friday’s trading was nothing short of insane. Processing Content One thing happened, which did seem to make sense, the yield curve finally had a day of steepening, but that was about it. After opening weaker in front of a shockingly soft jobs report, the 5-year yield dropped 7+ bps
Treasury yields whipsaw as oil spike looms over Fed Read More »
Early market reactions to the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict suggest inflation fears, not flight-to-safety buying, are dominating Treasury yields, a dynamic that could put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Processing Content Resolving the conflict swiftly and handling it in such a way that it increases security in the region could have some positive ramifications for housing, but
Middle East conflict stokes inflation, risks higher rates Read More »
In times past, an armed conflict involving the US would cause treasuries to rally, at least short-dated ones since they would be the beneficiary of a ‘flight to quality’ rally but $30T in debt may have changed that perception. Processing Content After the attack on Iran, not only have treasuries not rallied but the short
Why war didn’t trigger a treasury flight to safety Read More »
After treasuries opened this morning with sizable bullish gaps, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported headline Producer Price Index to be 0.5 % and Core Producer Price Index to be 0.8 % while both were expected to show 0.3 %. Purchasing Power Parity has not been particularly important during the current inflation conversation and today’s
Inflation runs hot as producer price index surges Read More »
Rising refinance recapture and a widening split in borrower performance are redefining the servicing outlook, speakers at a Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Dallas said Wednesday. Processing Content The latter, which has stemmed from what’s been referred to as a K-shaped economy, is “a tale of a few stories or maybe substories,” Joel Kan, deputy
Recapture rate is up as loan performance splits: MBA Servicing Read More »
The 5-year yield dropped 12+ bps in the days leading up to the BLS jobs report only to give back most of the gains just minutes after that report showed much stronger job growth than expected. From there it dropped 12+ bps again heading into this morning’s CPI report, also compiled by the BLS, but
CPI relief sends 5-year yield toward breakout Read More »
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid said the US central bank should hold rates at a “somewhat restrictive” level, as he expressed continued concerns over inflation that remains too high. Processing Content “In my view, further rate cuts risk allowing high inflation to persist even longer,” Schmid said Wednesday in prepared remarks
Fed’s Schmid says restrictive rates needed to cool inflation Read More »