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Jobs Report

Why the hiring rate matters more than unemployment for the housing market

Housing Inventory, Housing Market, HWmember, Jobs Report /

After painful delays following last fall’s government shutdown, labor market data is finally back on a consistent pace. Last week we filled in hiring, quits and layoffs from the BLS JOLTS report for February, plus unemployment numbers for March and the latest initial claims for the first week of April. Taken together, they help illustrate […]

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Negative jobs report keeps mortgage rates calm amid surging oil prices 

Federal Reserve, Housing Market, HWmember, Jobs Report /

Oil prices are surging and mortgage rates are roughly flat so far today. It has been a crazy day in the bond market: the 10-year yield first went lower after the jobs report, then Trump posted that the goal in Iran is “ultimate surrender,” which sent the 10-year yield higher with oil prices over $90.

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Job market softens as US payrolls fall by 92K in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Housing Market, HWmember, Inflation, Jobs Report, Mortgage, Mortgage Rates, Unemployment /

In a sign of a still-softening labor market, U.S. employers eliminated 92,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Economists say the report is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. Meanwhile, the jobs numbers for December 2025 were downwardly revised

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Markets are starting to price in escalation with Iran, but not fully yet 

Housing Market, HWmember, Inflation, Jobs Report, Mortgage Rates /

One of the odd things about Monday’s bond action and oil prices is that I didn’t believe the markets were taking the Iran situation seriously yet, given other data lines. Oil prices rose on Monday, but not to levels that I would consider escalation fears, nor did the 10-year yield, which closed at 4.05%. This

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BLS jobs report for January delayed by partial government shutdown

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Government Shutdown, Housing Market, Jobs Report, Mortgage Rates, Mortgage Rates Center /

The January jobs report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not be released as scheduled on Friday due to the partial federal government shutdown that began Saturday. The report will be issued once funding resumes. The shutdown was triggered after Congress failed to pass funding bills that include money for the

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December jobs data continues to support lower mortgage rates

Housing Market, Housing Starts, HWmember, Jobs Report, Mortgage, Mortgage Rates /

Jobs Friday came and went without much reaction in bond yields because the labor market isn’t breaking, nor is it getting stronger. Mortgage rates dropped into the 5s for a short time on Friday as a result of Trump’s earlier announcement directing the GSEs to buy $200 billion in mortgage backed securities. The 10-year yield

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What we know about the labor market, even without Jobs Friday data

Federal Reserve, Housing Market, Inflation, Jobs Report /

Jobs week ended with an eerie silence, as the government remains shut down and we didn’t receive the last two major reports for the week. Given that job growth has been slowing dramatically this year, it’s time to examine what is really going on.  For me, the situation is straightforward: over the past 24 months,

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Mortgage rates go wild following Fed rate cut and Powell remarks

Federal Reserve, Housing Market, HWmember, Jobs Report, Mortgage Rates, Purchase Applications /

Mortgage rates have had a wild ride since Fed Chair Jerome Powell started talking at the Fed press event Wednesday, rising 15 basis points today. However, I think the bond market responded appropriately after the Fed meeting, and on Thursday morning. Why? Even though the Fed lowered rates, the tone of the press conference was

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Mortgage rates hit new 2025 low as jobless claims spike

Housing Market, HWmember, Inflation, Jobs Report, Mortgage Rates /

Mortgage rates have reached a new low for 2025, despite the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation being well above the target and showing a stronger increase in the core goods component. Why are mortgage rates at 6.27%? Jobless claims experienced a significant spike today, which suggests that the labor market may not be as strong

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