Friday’s action made it seem a little more likely that the rallies from last week would extend and while I thought Wednesday’s FOMC meeting could be the source for any fireworks, it was news over the weekend that a peace deal with Iran had been reached which lit the fuse. Processing Content Oil futures opened […]
Bonds rally as Iran peace deal, FOMC loom large Read More »
Key insight: The biggest hurdle to shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet is the amount of reserves in the banking system necessary to ensure smooth market function. Fears of 2019-like reserve scarcity have shaped balance sheet management in the post-COVID era. Expert quote: “They are haunted by this. They feel that was an own-goal and there’s
To shrink the balance sheet, Fed must move past 2019 fears Read More »
Treasuries headed for their biggest drop in more than two weeks after a gauge of private-sector employment growth was in line with estimates, leaving intact expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. Processing Content The 10-year note’s yield was nearly five basis points higher on the day at 4.49%, only its
Treasuries eye biggest loss in two weeks after ADP jobs data Read More »
(Bloomberg) — Bond traders are fully pricing in an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, a sign of conviction in the market that Chair Kevin Warsh will need to move quickly to combat inflation. Processing Content Traders boosted their bets for higher rates on Friday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller — among the
Bond traders bet Fed under Warsh will hike rates this year Read More »
In dire need of a market-friendly CPI report, traders seemed to know that’s not what was coming as treasuries opened with bearish gaps leaving the 5-year yield within a basis point of its 5/4 yield crest. Processing Content Crude oil was also up another $3.50, which I’m sure didn’t help. Expectations were for headline CPI
Hotter-than-expected CPI sends yields climbing Read More »
The US Treasury signaled it’s still comfortable issuing the shortest-dated debt to meet escalating government borrowing needs — even as warnings emerge about the strategy’s risks. Processing Content The Treasury anticipates keeping nominal note and bond sale sizes unchanged “for at least the next several quarters,” the department said in a quarterly statement on debt
US punts on debt auctions, signaling no changes into 2027 Read More »
In what will be another quiet week on the economic calendar, Treasurys have begun trading slightly softer, but whether it turns out to be a quiet week news-wise is an entirely different story. Processing Content Friday saw all the Treasurys make solid gains even though the low 10-year and 30-year yields were made in the
Treasurys hold gains as oil, stocks flash mixed signals Read More »
Monday the 5-year yield opened a little higher, Tuesday a little lower, Wednesday a little higher, yesterday a little lower, so do I even need to say that the opening today was a little better? Processing Content Crude being down more than $7 didn’t hurt and then just minutes ago a headline reading Iran’s Foreign
Yields sink as oil drops, Iran opens Hormuz strait Read More »
(Bloomberg) — Treasuries fell as quickening inflation stemming from the US war on Iran — and the prospect of escalation — eroded wagers that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates once this year. Processing Content The rise in yields began in early US trading after the release of consumer prices data for March —
US Treasuries fall as inflation data erode Fed rate-cut wager Read More »
With a ceasefire in Iran announced early yesterday evening the economic landscape may have changed dramatically, then again maybe not. Processing Content The only scheduled economic news today is the release of the Minutes of the last FOMC meeting at 2:00, but since the futures markets didn’t have a change in rates priced in for
Iran ceasefire, Treasury gaps shift rate outlook Read More »