The odds that the Federal Reserve will cut benchmark interest rates again in December are still high — but not as high as they were before last week’s cut. As of Monday, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, 70% of interest rate traders are anticipating another 25-basis-point pullback after the Fed’s final meeting of […]
Fed interest rate cut odds drop amid inflation concerns Read More »
Ting Shen/Bloomberg Key Insight: Fed Gov. Lisa Cook highlighted her commitment to getting inflation to 2% and said she will “act forcefully” if signs emerge that point to cost pressures increasing. Expert quote: “Looking ahead, policy is not on a predetermined path.” — Fed Gov. Lisa Cook. What’s at stake: Cook’s remarks come amid a growing rift
Fed’s Cook strikes hawkish tone in rare appearance Read More »
The unsung hero of the housing market in 2025 has been the improvement in mortgage spreads, because without the spreads improving as much as they have, mortgage rates would not have gotten near 6% this year. I forecast that mortgage spreads should improve by 0.27%-0.41% this year, from a 2.54% average in 2024, giving mortgage
Mortgage spreads hit lowest level in years, keeping rates near 6% Read More »
Three Federal Reserve officials said they did not support the US central bank’s decision to cut interest rates this week, citing inflation that remains too high. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Cleveland counterpart, Beth Hammack, said Friday they would have preferred to hold rates steady. Both were speaking at a conference in Dallas,
Fed ‘chorus’ comes out against latest rate cut, citing inflation Read More »
Mortgage industry experts are divided over the idea of allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase their purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in order to reduce mortgage rates, a proposal recently suggested by trade groups. While the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) could create demand quickly amid a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s presence in the
Debate heats up around GSEs’ potentially larger role as MBS buyers Read More »
Key Insight: Market watchers expect the central bank to announce an end to its QT program soon, signaling the close of the Fed’s large-scale asset purchases during the pandemic. Economists have varying feelings about the program, with some urging the Fed to reconsider future purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Expert Quote: “You can argue about whether it’s
As Fed mulls the end of QT, what lessons have been learned? Read More »
A growing number of economists believe that the Federal Reserve is close to announcing the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) program — a move that could have wide-reaching implications for the mortgage industry. Over the past few weeks, central bank officials have signaled they are prepared to wind down the policy aimed at shrinking
Fed prepares to pivot balance sheet, with potential ripple effects for mortgages Read More »
Happy lowest-mortgage-rate-of-the-year day on this Halloween week! Mortgage rates are currently at a yearly low right before the Fed meets so the question is: will Fed Chair Jerome Powell ruin the good news right before Halloween festivities? Whatever Powell says tomorrow, mortgage rates are behaving differently than they did last year at this time. Last
Will the Fed ruin the lowest mortgage rates of 2025? Read More »
Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg Key Insight: The Federal Reserve’s proposal would release the central bank’s back-end stress testing models, and is out for public comment through Jan. 22, 2026. Expert Quote: “The Board’s stress testing program has operated with limited transparency, unreasonable year-over-year volatility, and the absence of any meaningful appeals process.” — Fed Vice Chair for
Fed proposal would publish full stress test models Read More »
Top former U.S. economic leaders, Gary Cohn and Lawrence Summers, raised red flags about the nation’s fiscal trajectory, the challenges of balancing monetary policy and the global context of U.S. debt. However, they Summers says economy is “remarkably resilient.” Speaking at the 2025 Mortgage Bankers Association‘s Annual Convention and Expo, Cohn and Summers also credited
Former economic leaders Cohn and Summers warn on U.S. fiscal path Read More »