The data void created by the US government shutdown is pushing bond traders to hedge against the risk that the Federal Reserve pauses at one of its two remaining meetings this year, or potentially delivers more policy easing than the market anticipates. Interest-rate swaps have been steadily pricing in roughly a quarter-point rate cut in both October […]
Bond traders step up Fed hedges as shutdown clouds outlook Read More »
Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeff Schmid said Monday that inflation remains above the Fed’s goal and backed current interest rate policy — even as the labor market cools and housing costs remain a key driver of inflation. Speaking to the CFA Society Kansas City, Schmid said he voted in favor of the Fed’s
Kansas City Fed chair backs cautious approach on rates Read More »
Mortgage rates have remained relatively stable in the past few days amid political turbulence, as the U.S. Congress has struggled to pass proposals to fund the government and end the shutdown, now in its seventh day. On Tuesday, HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center, which tracks locked loans, showed that 30-year conforming loan locks averaged 6.38%—four basis
Mortgage rates hold steady as shutdown enters seventh day Read More »
Prolonged funding pressures in US money markets, just as bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve are dwindling, suggest the central bank may be getting closer to ending the unwinding of its massive portfolio of securities. Overnight funding markets, where banks and asset managers borrow and lend to each other on a day-to-day basis, have
Fed’s balance sheet runoff in focus as bank reserves are ebbing Read More »
Bloomberg News Key Insight: Fed Gov. Stephen Miran said central bank independence in setting monetary policy is of “critical importance,” highlighting that the central bank’s decisions should be insulated from politics. Expert quote: “Monetary policy should be set for the goals that Congress has assigned the Fed — for price stability and full employment —
Miran cites ‘critical importance’ of Fed independence Read More »
Jobs week ended with an eerie silence, as the government remains shut down and we didn’t receive the last two major reports for the week. Given that job growth has been slowing dramatically this year, it’s time to examine what is really going on. For me, the situation is straightforward: over the past 24 months,
What we know about the labor market, even without Jobs Friday data Read More »
Key Insight: Payroll firm ADP showed that employers lost 32,000 jobs in September, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release its scheduled jobs report Friday because of the federal government shutdown. Forward look: The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September as a “risk management” move. The absence of a key
Even as shutdown halts BLS data, hiring appears to be slowing Read More »
Key Insight: The Supreme Court postponed a decision on whether to strike down an injunction that allowed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to remain on the board while her lawsuit against the administration moves forward, allowing her to stay at the Fed at least until oral arguments are held in early 2026. Expert Quote: “The
Supreme Court to hear Fed Gov. Cook case in 2026 Read More »
Al Drago/Bloomberg Key Insight: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said immigration and tariff policies have clouded his economic outlook and placed pressure on the central bank’s dual mandate. However, because tariffs have had a smaller-than-expected impact on inflation, he said he expects disinflation to resume after this year. Expert Quote: “I view the uncertainty
Fed’s Jefferson: Uncertainty around economy ‘especially high’ Read More »
Mortgage spreads are the hero of housing in 2025, quietly helping housing demand pick up even when nobody else notices. What are mortgage spreads? In the slow dance between the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rates since 1971, the mortgage spread is the distance between them — the key variable keeping them close or distant.
Mortgage spreads are the hero of the 2025 housing market Read More »