Key insight: Fed Gov. Lisa Cook, Gov. Michael Barr and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said in separate appearances Thursday that uncertainty over tariffs and geopolitical tensions is shifting the balance of risks toward combating a rise in inflation. Expert quote: “The ongoing trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions … pose upside risk to my inflation […]
Fed Govs. express concern about Iran war-driven inflation Read More »
The Iran conflict finally pushed the 10-year yield above a key level on Friday morning and if this move sticks and the conflict escalates further, mortgage rates are at risk of heading much higher during the spring season, something that wasn’t the case even a few weeks ago. Even some doves at the Federal Reserve
Mortgage rates are breaking higher — and things can get worse with Iran conflict Read More »
In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady Wednesday at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, the same level it set in January. “Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little
Fed holds rates, officials signal wait and see on inflation risks Read More »
In a sign of a still-softening labor market, U.S. employers eliminated 92,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Economists say the report is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. Meanwhile, the jobs numbers for December 2025 were downwardly revised
Job market softens as US payrolls fall by 92K in February Read More »
One of the odd things about Monday’s bond action and oil prices is that I didn’t believe the markets were taking the Iran situation seriously yet, given other data lines. Oil prices rose on Monday, but not to levels that I would consider escalation fears, nor did the 10-year yield, which closed at 4.05%. This
Markets are starting to price in escalation with Iran, but not fully yet Read More »
One of the positive housing stories that doesn’t get a lot of attention is the vacancy data we have in the U.S. today, especially the rental vacancy data, which is helping to fight inflation and keep mortgage rates lower. The homeowner vacancy data has improved with the rise in housing inventory, but it also shows
Rental vacancy data shows progress that can keep mortgage rates lower Read More »
Key insight: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Supreme Court limited the administration’s tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but that other laws could give the administration the same powers. Supporting data: The Penn-Wharton Budget Model has estimated that the court’s rejection of the IEEPA tariffs could result in as much as
Bessent: ‘No one should expect’ tariff revenue to decline Read More »
Inflation didn’t just make things “more expensive.” It broke household planning—because the largest line item in most budgets, housing, is still shopped with the wrong unit of measure. When families budget by monthly outflow but search by list price, the market becomes inefficient, stress rises, and mobility collapses. The fix is straightforward: make monthly payment
Key Insight: Inflation showed signs of cooling in January, with the annual inflation rate dropping to 2.4%. Supporting data: Prices excluding food and fuel rose 0.3% in January, while food increased 0.2% and energy prices ticked down by 1.5%, the report found. Forward look: The January inflation reading remains slightly above the Fed’s longstanding 2%
Inflation cools to 2.4%, bolstering Fed’s cautious rate outlook Read More »
Key takeaway: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an appearance Wednesday that the Federal Reserve should require regional Fed presidents to reside in their districts for three years going forward. Supporting data: All 12 regional Fed presidents’ terms expire every five years and are reappointed as a bloc. The next vote on reappointing regional bank
Bessent floats residency rule for regional Fed presidents Read More »