As mortgage purchase applications approach a three-year high, it’s vital to recognize the significant role played by mortgage spreads. Without the improvement in mortgage spreads starting in 2024, we would not have gotten mortgage rates below 6.64%, which spurred the last 18 weeks of positive data. The following analysis examines this data in detail. Mortgage […]
December housing demand near 3-year high as spreads improve Read More »
The month of December typically has the lowest weekly seasonal demand for housing, but it’s a big key to how the spring of 2026 will perform — if you know what housing data lines to focus on. Traditionally, I wouldn’t care so much about December housing data; however, post-COVID, the forward-looking seasonal demand data has
December housing data provides early signals for 2026 market Read More »
The housing market experienced a slightly positive shift mid-June and is ending 2025 on even more positive news. Existing home sales have shown four consecutive months of year-over-year growth and our total pending home sales data has just reached a multiyear high for this calendar week. By tracking weekly housing demand we can see that
Total pending home sales reach multiyear high with mortgage rates near 6% Read More »
Last week, housing inventory levels decreased noticeably, while our weekly pending sales showed a notable increase compared to the same period last year. Was the decrease in inventory primarily due to the seasonal decline in housing stock, or did the increase in demand contribute to lowering the inventory unmbers? Let’s dive into this weekend’s tracker
Housing inventory falls as demand picks up Read More »
The unsung hero of the housing market in 2025 has been the improvement in mortgage spreads, because without the spreads improving as much as they have, mortgage rates would not have gotten near 6% this year. I forecast that mortgage spreads should improve by 0.27%-0.41% this year, from a 2.54% average in 2024, giving mortgage
Mortgage spreads hit lowest level in years, keeping rates near 6% Read More »
We had a nice pop in our weekly pending home sales last week, and with mortgage rates near 2025 lows we could ask: Is housing breaking out? Not exactly. One of the themes I really stressed this year is that weekly data can be volatile around holiday weekends. So we always look at the two
Weekly home sales look stronger than normal, but there’s a catch Read More »
Mortgage applications decreased 0.3% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)’s weekly mortgage applications survey for the week ending Oct. 17. On an unadjusted basis, the index decreased 0.2% compared with the previous week. The refinance index increased 4% from the previous week and was 81% higher than the same
ARM, refinance activity buck the trend of declining mortgage demand Read More »
Mortgage applications for new homes dipped in September from the previous month but remained higher than last year’s levels, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)’s Builder Application Survey released Thursday. The data offers a snapshot of housing demand at a time when market watchers are seeking clues about new-home sales amid the federal government
New-home mortgage applications dip in September Read More »
Housing inventory at one point this year showed 33% year-over-year growth, but that growth has since slowed to 17%, and we might already have seen the seasonal peak in inventory for the year in the first week of August. I didn’t believe we were witnessing the peak in August and I have been looking for
Did housing inventory peak in August this year? Read More »
Growth in total active inventory has been my favorite story for housing in 2025, but that inventory growth has slowed recently, and today’s Housing Market Tracker will focus on why. Inventory growth was running at 33% year over year a few months ago, but it dropped to 17.66% last week. Let’s find out what happened.
Why has housing inventory growth slowed? Read More »