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Thursday was the first day of the week with any meaningful economic reports. This is important to mortgage rates because economic data influences the bonds that determine day-to-day changes in rates.  In general, stronger data is bad for rates and today was no exception.   While today’s GDP data was for Q2 (and thus fairly stale), […]

Over time, mortgage rate movement lines up almost perfectly with movement in the underlying bond market, but there can be day to day discrepancies depending on the timing of market volatility. Think of mortgage rates like a restaurant that adjusts menu prices daily depending on the price of ingredients. Sometimes, ingredient prices will change significantly

Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take their most important cues from big ticket economic reports. But such reports have been in short supply so far this week. Instead, the market has been left to focus mainly on speeches from various Federal Reserve officials. Fed speeches can certainly have an impact, but it

After hitting the lowest levels in nearly a year (and nearly the lowest levels in 3 years) last Tuesday, rates lurched higher following Wednesday’s Fed announcement.  While the Fed cut rates as expected, and while the Fed’s rate forecasts were well-received, Powell’s guidance pushed back in the other direction.  Economic data on Thursday morning made

Officially, our daily mortgage rate index is a hair lower today than it was yesterday. Your mileage may vary depending on the lender in question. Reason being: some lenders offered mid-day improvements yesterday, but not enough to impact our index.  Those same lenders are generally a hair higher today, but again, the average lender is

Katie Sweeney, a prominent broker advocate, is disputing accusations by her former organization that she directed almost $1 million in payments to herself. The Association of Independent Mortgage Experts raised the claim in response to its former leader’s lawsuit suggesting the trade group owes her money. The sides have traded allegations since Sweeney sued AIME

Several things happen on Fed Day–especially on the 4 out of 8 examples with updated rate forecasts from Fed members.  The official announcement of a rate cut is typically the least important aspect.  In fact, it is usually entirely unimportant in terms of its impact on mortgage rates. Instead, the bonds that determine mortgage rates

Mortgage rates dropped sharply lower today relative to the amount of movement in the underlying bond market with the average lender right in line with the lowest levels since late 2022. Because rates are directly tied to the prices of those bonds, the correlation tends to be almost perfect over time. But there are always

Forward look: Miran is expected to take part in the Fed’s rate setting committee meeting.  Key insight: Miran breaks years of precedent by becoming the first Fed official to also retain his White House position.  What’s at stake: The Fed will decide this week whether to cut interest rates, and Miran will likely be a